STA, 22 August 2022 - Lawyer and ex-Information Commissioner Nataša Pirc Musar tops the latest public opinion poll measuring support for the presidential election conducted by Mediana for the newspaper Delo. Pirc Musar has been picked by 26.1% of respondents, and is followed closely by former Foreign Minister Anže Logar.
Logar mustered 23.4%, while Marta Kos, a vice-president of the ruling Freedom Movement, is the only other presidential candidate with a substantial backing, polling at 14.1%.
The remaining candidates for the 23 October elections are far behind, with former Foreign Minister and MEP Ivo Vajgl receiving the backing of 3.2% of the respondents, followed by gynaecologist Sabina Senčar (2.9%) and psychoanalyst Nina Krajnik (0.8%).
More than 15.1% of the 501 respondents polled on 16-18 August were undecided, 4.1% said they would not vote for any of the candidates and 3.8% said they would not vote at all.
Delo notes that, given the latest public opinion polls, a run-off is very likely, and if it featured Pirc Musar and Logar, 44.4% would vote for the former and 30.9% for the latter.
A run-off featuring Pirc Musar and Kos would see Pirc Musar get 35.2% and Kos 20.7%, with 44.1% of the respondents undecided.
Pirc Musar would get a majority of the votes of those would vote for Logar (68%) and Kočevje Mayor Vladimir Prebilič (60%) in the first round, while Kos would be endorsed by supporters of Vajgl (77%) and Senčar (67%).
Delo's analyst Roman Zatler commented on the poll by saying that the difference between Pirc Musar and Logar is too small to make a reliable prediction of who would win the first round of the presidential election.
On the other hand, the difference between Pirc Musar and Kos, and between Logar and Kos is so large that the vice-president of Freedom Movement is very unlikely to surpass either of the two leading candidates.
If the undecided are eliminated from the poll, Pirc Musar would get 59% and Logar 41% of the vote, Zatler said, adding that in a run-off, Pirc Musar would get a majority of the votes of those who would in the first round vote for Kos (93%), Vajgl (79%) and Prebilič (67%), while Logar would get votes from supporters of Krajnik.