STA, 17 May 2019 - With just over a week to go until voting day in EU elections, migrations and security have become firmly established as the main campaign topics. While there are still several major TV debates on the agenda, the outlines of the likely results are already clear, according to analysts.
Migrations are undoubtedly the no. 1 topic, trailed by climate change and Brexit. People are also interested in the benefits of the EU, but issues such as trade agreements and personal data protection are not prominent, Igor Kršinar, a journalist for the conservative weekly Reporter, told the STA.
Andraž Zorko, an analyst with the pollster Valicon, said he was surprised issues that had been prominent in the past year - trade agreements, digital services, attitude to multinationals - had not gained traction despite being "issues that are resolved at the European level."
Regardless of the issues that are prominent in the campaign, Zorko thinks that "the cards have already been dealt" barring any major surprises in the final week of debates.
He said the Democrats (SDS) already had two seats secured, with New Slovenia (NSi) and Social Democrat (SD) front-runners, Ljudmila Novak and Tanja Fajon, shoo-ins as well, and Angelika Mlinar of the Alenka Bratušek Party (SAB) is likely to succeed too.
"From here on it is much less certain. I personally think the Left is most likely to win a seat. Although, two or three weeks ago I was certain about that, now I'm less so. There have been quite a few mistakes, Violeta Tomić in particular has not performed very well, in particular on the international scene," according to Zorko.
As for the remainder of Slovenia's eight seats, Zorko says the NSi could conceivably win one more, with either MEP Lojze Peterle or Žiga Turk having the potential to secure enough preferential votes.
The Marjan Šarec List (LMŠ), Pensioners' Party (DeSUS) and Modern Centre Party (SMC) are likely to fight it out for the last remaining seat, according to him.
Kršinar meanwhile thinks the joint slate of the SDS and People's Party (SLS) might clinch three seats, with either of the two SLS candidates, MEP Franc Bogovič or former Maribor mayor Franc Kangler, the likeliest to win enough preferential votes.
On the left side of the spectrum, Kršinar is not convinced that Tomić would be the one to be elected if the Left gets enough votes. He thinks the party leader, Luka Mesec, is more likely to receive sufficient support.
But it is also entirely possible that instead of opting for the "radical left," voters support other players, for example DeSUS's Igor Šoltes, Kršinar said.
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